February mortgage rates forecast

I predict that mortgage rates will edge upward in February as the Federal Reserve moves toward restoring bond markets to normal.

The Fed has been intervening in bond markets to push down on interest rates and keep money flowing through the financial system during the pandemic. As that intervention draws to a close, mortgage rates will rise faster than the yields on the 10-year Treasury note, which is the vehicle that the government uses to get a 10-year loan. Usually, 30-year mortgages and 10-year Treasurys rise and fall roughly in tandem. But they got out of sync during the pandemic.